Week 14 NFL DFS Playbook

Week 14 is here and most of you are kicking off the playoffs in your season long leagues. We got off to a wild start Thursday when Alvin Kamara was lost in the first quarter and Matt Ryan tossed 3 picks while still winning the game. We have 13 games on each site this week thanks to FanDuel holding their FFWC (Fantasy Football World Championship) live final. FanDuel has removed the SNF game from this contest and slate to create an even playing field. Click here to listen to the full podcast and keep scrolling for the all the plays we like this week.

Vegas Lines

Visitor

O/U Home

Packers

40.5 Browns (+3.5)

Seahawks

40.0 Jaguars (-3)

49ers

43.5 Texans (-3)

Bears

38.5 Bengals(-6)

Vikings

41.0 Panthers (+3)
Lions n/a

Buccaneers

Raiders 47.5

Chiefs (-4)

Colts n/a

Bills

Jets 41.5

Broncos (+1.5)

Redskins 46.0

Chargers (-6)

Titans 44.0

Cardinals (+3)

Cowboys

41.5 Giants (+4)

Eagles

48.0

Rams (-2.5)

Ravens 44.0

Steelers (-5)

 

QB

Derek Carr (6400|7700) The Raiders are taking on a terrible defense in the Chiefs and Derek is getting his buddy Michael back after his suspension.  The Chiefs D has given up the 5th most DK points to the QB this year and the 5th most yards.  Carr has been consistent this season in yards/game and in his last 6 has averaged 301.  With Crabtree coming back I think he is going to want to make a statement, and Derek will be happy to make that possible.

Case Keenum (6100|7500) For how hot he has been, his price is certainly boring and this play is quite obvious when you dig deeper (i guess making it not obvious). Keenum has put up at least 16 FPGs his last 7 starts and the Carolina D is great only on paper. They have given up a boatload of points in recent weeks, especially when you remove the Bears game from the sample where Trubisky through 7 passes.

Jim Garrapolo (5500|7000) He showed flashes in his first start with the 49ers, leading them to a win on the road against the Bears. It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows though as he didn’t have a TD and didn’t lead any TD drives. That being said, his 293 yards was a positive, especially looking at Mitch Trubisky on the otherside who has yet to crack 200 yards in any game (it seems). This week, he travels to Houston who have let up boatloads of points to opposing QBs since losing Watt and Mercilus. It’s a strong spot to save some salary and get a future all-pro QB.

DeShone Kizer (4900|6400) DeShone Kizer has not really been a good QB this season and I don’t think that is changing any time soon.  However, if you believe in Josh Gordon then someone has to give him the ball.  This is a week that I think the Browns will find their first win on the season against a bottom of the barrel defense.  The Packers have let up 19 TDs to the QB, but I am mostly focusing how bad they are against the WR, which we will talk about later.  But one thing about Kizer is he is willing to run the ball in the redzone giving him the chance to get 6 points instead of 4 on a TD.  The only place for him is in a GPP is you stack him with Flash Gordon.

 

RB

LeSean McCoy (7200|9000) Taking on the Colts this week who are the 5th worst team against the RB. McCoy has shown us that he has the potential to be a blow up player, going over 100 yards 3 times this season.  The only uncertainty in this game is what the hell is going to happen at QB. The last time we saw Nate Peterman start a game he threw for 5 interceptions in the first half and had to be benched for Tyrod Taylor. That didn’t spell disaster for McCoy who had 80 yards and a TD with Peterman turning the ball ove 5 times. With Taylor probably missing with a knee injury, Peterman gets the start and the back up would be Joe Webb running the wildcat offense which bodes really well for McCoy.

Melvin Gordon (7800|8600) Melvin gets touches galore. 20+ opportunities in each of his last 4 games. This week they play host to the Washington Redskins who are another team that is getting beat up by the RB. 6th most DK points allowed, tied for 7th most TDs, and in the bottom half for yard allowed.

Lamar Miller (5800|6600) He’s been steady this year, never really having a poor out but also never going off. He’s finished as a top 12 RB only 3 times this year but has finished as a top 36 RB all but one game. We targeted the 49ers last week with Jordan Howard and were let down but that shouldn’t stop us from targeting the best matchups. Miller might be underowned and has a great opportunity to go off.

Alfred Morris (5500|6800) He got it going on Thursday last week and showed us that he is the primary back in that backfield with 27 rush attempts for 127 yards.  Rod Smith did steal away 10 carries, but that is going to be expected.  Morris feels to me like a safe cash play with potential upside, but I don’t know if his upside makes him sexy enough for GPP consideration.

 

Giovani Bernard (3100|5100) Joe Mixon has been officially ruled out. Between Joe and Gio there are 17 carries/game from the Bengals offense.  When Mixon went down in the second quarter last week and Bernard’s workload went up (13/77) and I think that this weeks matchup we can expect that number to rise even more. Gio also played all 24 snaps in the 2nd half with Mixon out as they do not have a back up. He’ll be chalky but probably a great salary reliever. I’m looking for Gio to have 20+ opportunities with slight TD upside.  The Bears only average about 15 DK points to the RB this season, but at $3100 he is a GREAT cash play.

Frank Gore (3900|5500) & Marlon Mack (3800|5400) We have been targeting all of the poor rush defenses and the Bills are the worst run D since they lost Marcell Dareus in Week 8. The Bills have been giving up over 5 YPC in that span and a boat load of TDs. It might be difficult to pick which one but on DraftKings, I might make a lineup with both of them in there.

Doug Martin (4000|6100) or Peyton Barber (4500|5500) Martin is on track to start and if he plays, we have to take a peek at him as the Lions have been one of the worst Ds against the rush the last 3 weeks. He is recovering from a concussion and certainly hasn’t been great this season but the talent is there. If he isn’t healthy, we can look at Peyton Barber who had over 150 yards from scrimmage last game with Martin out. One note against Martin is he has historically and this year especially been anemic to big plays. He has the least amount of 5 runs going for 5+ yards

WR

Deandre Hopkins (8500|8600) Hopkins has remained one of the strongest WR plays, despite losing his quarterback. He is still over 1000 yards on the season. He is getting double digit targets almost every week and is almost always flirting with the 100 yard bonus. The last 2 week he hasn’t been able to find the endzone, but a guy with 9 TD on the season already is sure to get himself to the promise land again. And he is taking on 49ers who have given up the 11th most DK points to the WR this season.

Tyreek Hill (7100|7800) He finally went off last game with Alex Smith pumping the ball downfield. The Raiders easily have a worse D against the pass than the Jets so we should expect a similar gameplan of pushing the ball down the field. Hill is cheetah fast and in the games I have watched him, he makes a lot of catches down the field going up and getting the ball. AKA he isn’t running by guys, he is actually boxing out and catching the ball at the high point which I love seeing.

Keenan Allen (8300|8400) He has come alive the last 3 weeks and his price certainly shows it but we have to look at him vs the Redskins who are out of contention and even worse against the pass. They got blown out by the Cowboys last week to kill their playoff chances and have been siphoning points to WRs the last 4 weeks. This is a smash spot for Allen.

Michael Crabtree (6700|7100) Crabtree averages 7 targets/game this season, and possibly without Cooper this week we can expect to see Crabtrees volume be boosted.  The Chiefs allowed Robbie Anderson to run rampant and their bottom five pass D should allow Crab to feast. The Chiefs are a mess all around so I would expect points galore in this one. Furthermore, Amari Cooper had his best game of the year last time against the Chiefs which bows well for the former Texas Tech great.

Jamison Crowder (5900|6800) Crowder will be off everyone’s radar but he has emerged the last few weeks and he gets a Chargers team that is atrocious against slot receivers. 45% of their PPR points allowed has come via the slot and Crowder has averaged over 17 PPR points a game the last 5.

Josh Gordon (5500|6700) Don’t think about it.  He is an athletic FREAK.  He is playing the Packers. His price is not prohibitive. He didn’t catch a pass since 2014, and in his first game back he saw 11 targets.  Of those 11 he only caught 4, but her turned those 4 receptions into 85 yards. Imagine how much better he is going to look this week with more time spent with DeShone Kizer. Oh yeah, and he is taking on the Green Bay Packers. Packers to the WR are 4th worst in DK points allowed, 5th in yards allowed, 5th in TDs allowed and tied for 4th worst  in receptions, despite being 15th in total targets.  This is the cheapest you will get Josh Gordon for a while, might as well make something happen.  I’m very excited about this one. Kizer also locked in on him in a terrible matchup so it certainly seems like they want to get him the ball. I would imagine his ownership will be through the roof but all signs say a classic JG game.

TE

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (3600|5900) The Broncos have emerged as another one of those horrible teams against the tight end, and ASJ has been questionable (when it comes to production) at best recently, making him the perfect price going into cash.  Broncos are giving up an average of 16.3 DK points/game, which is good for third worst (behind the Giants and Browns) and have given up the most yards to the TE this season.  With Robby Anderson

Stephen Anderson (3200|4500) He was a former college WR, similar to Ricky Seals-Jones on the Cardinals. We are seeing a lot of these bigger college WRs who might not have the speed of a NFL WR are moving to this move TE position to create matchup problems. Anderson is essentially lining up at WR every snap so it’s an easy way to get WR upside at the price of TE.

Jason Witten (4700|5800) Taking on the Giants who we love to target. That being said, the last 3 weeks, the Giants have been stingy against the TE. The held Jared Cook to 1 catch, kept Travis Kelce out of the endzone (although he did have over 100 receiving yards) and held Vernon Davis to 0 catches, 0 yards. I might look to target another bottom 5 against the TE team. I’m maybe drinking the kool-aid on narrative too much here as well as I think the Giants are going to fight and win for Eli this week.

Travis Kelce (7400|8000) He went off last week and gets rewarded with an even worse D. I expect the Chiefs to continue to push the ball downfield as they had a lot of success with it this year. With Gronk out and Ertz out, Kelce becomes THE tight end this week.

Delanie Walker (5700|6600) Don’t look now but Walker has had 5 straight games of over 60 yards receiving with a few TDs sprinkled in. He’s not flashy but you look at his boxscore and you see 5 catches, 65 yards and a TD and you are a very happy.

 

D/ST

I am not going to do my full write up this week, rather just note a couple defenses I like and why. It is always nice to have a process for picks and I have done that on the side and will post the winners here.

Colts (3500|4100) The Colts presumably get to face Nathan Peterman who blew up in his last game and did not look great in relief against the Pats last week. I harp on targeting QBs who are not made for the NFL and Peterman is one of them. The Colts are cheap on FanDuel and should be contrarian enough to get some free points. I would avoid on DraftKings as they are priced up there.

Vikings (2700|4600) The Panthers are severely lacking in weapons and Cam Newton is not the QB to make something out of nothing. With only Funchess on the outside, Cam will be running for his life trying to find an opening. This is a sneaky play on DraftKings at their price.

Jaguars (3500|5200) The Jags are here every week because they score a TD every week. They get the Seahawks at home who are certainly a formidable offense but rely solely on Russell Wilson to make plays. He is prone to extend the play and turnover the ball over which means a good chance at 6 points for the Jags D.

K (ftFDfot)

Back to back great weeks so let’s avoid a let down and grab some bonus points from everyone’s favorite position. We hit on Tucker and Gould last week and weren’t harmed by Succup at all.

Robbie Gould (4500) FanDuel is funny sometimes. He kicked 5 FGs last week and gets another great matchup but his price stays rock bottom. Works for us as we will go back to the well and watch him win us some money.

Ryan Succup (4700) Going back and back to the well here. He is deadly accurate and his team hates scoring TDs. Set and forget and save some money in the process.

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