Week 12 NFL DFS Playbook – Main Slate

With Thanksgiving behind us, we hope you feasted on the three games and got stuffed with cash instead of just stuffing. For us here at Bettor than Half, we ending up throwing up over ourselves since we aren’t that great at GPPs, especially on the small slates. Luckily for us, dessert is a full slate of games on Sunday where we can lick our chops and recover all we lost on Turkey Day.

Click here to listen to our Week 12 podcast.

Vegas Lines

Visitor

O/U Home

Bills

46.5 Chiefs (-10)

Dolphins

48.0 Patriots (-17)

Bears

44.0 Eagles (-14)
Titans 46.0

Colts (+3)

Panthers 40.0

Jets (+5.5)

Buccaneers 49.0

Falcons (-10)

Browns

38.0 Bengals (-8)

Seahawks

45.0 49ers (+6.5)

Saints

53.5

Rams (-2.5)

Broncos 43.5

Raiders (-5)

Jaguars 38.0

Cardinals (+6)

Packers 43.5

Steelers (-14)

We finally get a week with intriguing matchups and games we actually want to target. Week 11 was interesting as it provided us with the highest cash lines yet had the most games under 40 prior to kickoff. This week, we only get one game over 50 but there are 5 double digit favorites, all at home. We discuss in detail the implied team totals on the podcast but there are 5 teams with implied team totals over 28 points. That is something we love to see.

QB

Matt Ryan (6400|7600) Matty Ice is in a great spot this week, hosting a pretty bad pass defense in the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Ryan has great options to throw it to (Jones and Sanu) and has thrown for 2 TD in each of the last 4 weeks.  He was held to only 195 yards passing last week, but that was in Seattle, who are in the top third against the QB.  Not quite the same thing with the Bucs.  I’m looking for him to have a good week here.

Cam Newton (6600|8000) Before the bye Cam went wild and threw for 254/4, and added 5 rushes for 95 yards against the Dolphins.  He also hasn’t thrown a pick in his last 2 games.  This week after a week off Cam is traveling to the Jets, who are pretty middle of the pack against the QB and are tied for third most TD to the position (20).  The Panthers have 2 players averaging over 7 targets per game (McCaffery/Funchess) and I am not that worried about the Jets.

Jared Goff (6700|7600) After pumping his tires last week, Goff could not get anything going against the tough Vikings D. This week, he welcomes an equally tough D in New Orleans but they are missing their top 2 cornerbacks. Kirk Cousins faced a similar scenario last week and with his hodgepodge group of WRs, torched the Saints for 300+ yards and 31 points. Goff does not have Robert Woods but still has big play threat Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp plus the steady hand of Todd Gurley. This is a great spot for Goff at low ownership.

Andy Dalton(6000|7200) Andy Dalton is not a great quarterback. He might not even be a good one. But against the Browns, he is very capable and history has shown it. The last 7 games against them, he has thrown for over 275 yards, 2.6 TDs, and completed over 75% of his throws. That is a far cry from the mediocre stat lines he has been tossing up this season. He’s a perfect GPP play this week and perhaps perfect to pair with a very elite WR.

RB

Tevin Coleman (6500|6200) Devonta Freeman is missing another week thanks to his concussion so we are left with Coleman who draws the Bucs D at home with the Falcons sitting at -10 point favorites. We harped all year how Freeman smashes at home when favored so it should be no different here. Coleman has finished as a top 24 RB the past two weeks and should be a lock to find the endzone, adding to his catching ability out of the backfield.

Christian McCaffery (6900|6700) We love McCaffery.  He is the leading pass catcher on his team and is still an RB priced under 7k.  Before the bye he was not utilized very heavily (5 rush, 7 targets) and still found pay dirt twice.  McCaffery is looking at about 15 opportunities/ game but has yet to have a real blowup game. He still has a safe floor with 20+ DK points in 3 of his last 5 weeks, and double digits all but 2 games in his young career.  He can do everything and with his safe floor and blow up upside makes him an exciting cash play.

Mark Ingram (8300|8200) Super fun to play every week and taking on the Rams should give us more fireworks. Ingram has 19 opportunities/game in his last 4 and 5 TD in that stretch. The Rams are now second in total points scored this season (303), followed by the Saints (302).  Ingram has gone over 100 rush yards 4 times this season, with two of those being in the last 2 weeks.  Double digit DK points all but 1 week this season.  The Rams have the 5th worst defense against the RB position this season.  They let up 110 yards/game on the ground.  The only problem (which hasn’t really been a problem for either of them) is that he has to share the opportunities with…

Alvin Kamara (7900|8100) Same things as Ingram when it comes to the defense he is facing.  Lots of points are going to happen in the game.  In his last 3 games he has gotten 32.2, 27.8, and 25.6 points on DK.  This backfield is ridiculous.  Kamara is seeing 16 opportunities/game in his last 4 and has 5 TD in that stretch.  Either one of these guys is good to go!

Todd Gurley (8800|8500) In the same game, Gurley is in a great spot taking on the Saints at home with his team missing Robert Woods.  Gurley has the same number of receptions as the leading active receiver on his team (38-Cooper Kupp) and should be seeing a good amount of volume this week.  No Woods coupled with his about 20 opportunity baseline should give Gurley a safe floor and high potential ceiling.  

LeSean McCoy (8500|8300) The Bills are big time dogs headed into KC, but they have Tryod back so their offense looks to be on the field more than they were last week.  Despite having little confidence in the Chiefs, we could see a game that looks like 2 weeks ago when we saw the Bills take on NO.  In a blowout loss we only saw McCoy get 8 rushes and 5 targets.  If we see that game script you can fade Shady, but if it becomes a grinding it out game look for the Bills to try to get the ball out of Taylor’s hands and put it in LeSean’s.

Kareem Hunt (8000|7700) In the same game, Kareem Hunt gets the best matchup possible to break out of his 5 game slump. If it weren’t for the Chargers returning every turnover for a TD, Melvin Gordon would of had an amazing game. Instead, he finished with 90 yards and a TD in limited minutes. The Bills are still the worst D against the run and are giving up close to 5 yards per carry. If Hunt doesn’t break out this week, I might have to be #done with him for the rest of the year.

Jay Ajayi (6200|7000) This one is certainly more of a gut feeling.  Since coming to the Eagles Ajayi has gone 8/77/1 and 7/91/0 with 1 reception for 10 yards.  The Bears defense gives up 24.2 DK points/game and 21.2 on FD.  I think of Ajayi as a GPP play where you want to be ahead of the curve on a big week, especially in a game where the Eagles should be leading and wanting to get their new back some more work.

WR

Mohamad Sanu (5200|5800) Sanu is taking on the Buccaneers who are giving the most receiving yards/game (192.5 T-Patriots) and 42 DK points/game and 33.2 FD.  He has 30 less targets than Julio Jones, but has 3 more receiving TDs (4 to 1) and has played in 1 less game.  Sanu is another guy who is yet to have that big blowup game.  He hasn’t gone over 85 yards yet this season, but the Bucs defense could be a remedy for that. Lock and load in cash.

AJ Green (8000|8300) The Bengals are an 8 point favorite in a low scoring matchup against the Browns.  Green has been over 100 yds in 3 games this season and just keeps finding the endzone.  He has scored once in 6 of his 10 games and averages 8.3 targets/game.  Green is leading his team with 83 targets which is 29 more than the next closest guy.  Dalton loves his tall and fast AJ Green so he should be a pretty safe option this week.

Cooper Kupp (5000|5400) & Sammy Watkins (4900|5900) Among players active this week for LAR (with Robert Woods out), Kupp is leading the team in targets with 61.  He is also tied for the team lead with 38 catches meaning Kupp is that safety valve for Goff. With Woods out however, the intriguing play is Sammy Watkins. An interesting scouting note regarding Goff and Watkins is how the Rams QB goes through his progressions. Most of the time, he is looking right (where Woods lines up more than 75% of the time) and if that isn’t open, he is checking down to Gurley. Watkins is getting open on film, it’s just that Goff is not looking at him when he is open. We presume Watkins will line up on the right side, meaning he is Goff’s first read and a big game for Samuel.

Mike Evans (7400|7700) Evans has double digit targets in 5 of his 9 games and coming back after his week 10 suspension Evans took 10 targets for 92 yards in a win over Miami.  Evans is in a TD drought, having not scored one since week 7. He has Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to him but that shouldn’t slow him down in a game where the Bucs expect to be trailing.

Alshon Jeffery (6300|7100) Taking on his old team Alshon should want to get it going in this matchup.  He is averaging 8 targets/game this season and his QB is an absolute machine.  Jeffery has found the endzone 4 times his last 3 and has been part of 2 2-point conversions in that same stretch.  The Bears have been okay against the WR this season, but Jeffery has a point to make.  Look for him to have a big game.

TE

Rob Gronkowski (6900|7700) The Pats are hosting the Dolphins who are 6th worst against the TE this season, and Gronk is great.  He has a nose for the endzone having scored 5 this season. He was not amazing last week, but I’m looking for him to perform in this spot. The last time Gronk played the Dolphins at home he had 113 yards and a TD.

Jack Doyle (4500|5700) This is certainly more of a feel play than anything as the Colts get the Titans coming back from a bye. Doyle has been fairly consistent and acted as a nice safety valve for Jacoby Brissett. Remember, with mid-tier Tight Ends, we are only looking for about 10 points which is easily doable for a guy like Jack Doyle.

Jared Cook (4600|5500) Broncos are surprisingly one of the worst teams against the TE this season, up there with the Browns and Giants, which means Jared Cook is a great play. Tyler Kroft scored last week continuing the trend of TDs or big games or both. Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib will shut down Crabtree and Cooper leaving the only options for Derek Carr are Cook and Seth Roberts. I like Cook to have a similar game to one last week against the Pats.

D/ST

I am taking a break from my full breakdowns. You’ll forgive me since we all were stuffing our faces Thursday. I will however highlight a few teams I like.

Jaguars (4100|5500) They have the best pass defense in the league and get yet another rookie or backup QB. They will be missing Jalen Ramsey but it shouldn’t affect things too much as the Cardinals main threat is Larry Fitzgerald who lines up primarily in the slot. For now, play the Jags until they prove you wrong.

Eagles (3600|4900) The Jags pass defense gets all the love but the Eagles rush D is no different. Sure you can say the Eagles are blowing teams out which is why they have only allowed 450 yards rushing on the year but teams have yet to go over 100 yards and prevent teams from establishing any sort of rhythm.

Steelers (4800) This is only for the FanDuel crowd out there as the late game this week is the Steelers welcoming the Packers who were shut out at home vs the Ravens last week. The Steelers also put a ebating on Marcus Mariota and the Titans, picking him off 4 times last week. This is a smash spot for the aggressive Steelers D.

Patriots (3400|4700) Feels like just a few weeks ago we were attacking the Pats D with Josh McCown and Robbie Anderson but my have things changed. The Pats are now shutting down QBs and WRs alike and get the hapless Dolphins this week starting Matt Moore. It’s a great spot for them to take advantage.

K(ftFDfot)

I am not giving up on Kickers yet even though my last 4 weeks have been atrocious. This week, I am going to look at the games that have the biggest spreads on them and start there.

Ryan Succup (4800) Before I jump in to the favorites, my cheat code is back on the main slate. I will be plugging and playing him over the next guys only because he is super reliable.

Stephen Gostowski (5200) The Pats are 17 point favorites and should see a lot of offensive time on the Dolphins side of the field. No team is perfect scoring TDs so there will be lots of opportunity for the recently reliable Gostowski.

Matt Bryant (4900) Bryant is getting up there in age but is still quite reliable in the new Georgia Dome. The 10 point line doesn’t hurt his cause either.

Greg Zuerlein (5200) He had a bummer last week, adding to my frustration scoring 1 point but coming back home to LA and in a game where Vegas expects a lot of points to be scored, it’s a great spot to lock him in if you have the money.

 

That’s all for Week 12. Good luck, get out there, and win some money.

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