Week 10 NFL DFS Playbook

Week 10 has begun and we already have our first big injury in a year filled with season enders. Richard Sherman ruptured his Achilles while we’ll have to monitor Russell Wilson’s concussion going forward. Thankfully (yet unfortunate for those hurt), we haven’t seen many GTD’s or shock announcements that injuries usually force upon us fantasy footballers. This week is no different as there are maybe a handful of guys who are questionable to go but even still, they’ve practiced and should suit up. The Vegas lines however, are not as kind to us as we have a lot of low scoring matchups and a bunch of double digit favorites. It felt like last year we had multiple games every week in the 50+ over under category.

We have a breakdown of all the players we like below and new this week, we are trying out SoundCloud to host our podcast. As customary, I’ve put the timestamp of each position so you can easily jump around.

Week 10 – Bettor than Half Podcast

Week 10 Vegas Lines (2:10)

Visitor O/U Home
Packers 38.0 Bears ( -6)
Steelers 44.0 Colts (+10)
Vikings 42.5 Redskins (+1.5)
Browns 44.0 Lions (-13)
Chargers 41.0 Jaguars (-4)
Bengals 40.5 Titans (-5)
Jets 43.5 Bucs ( +2.5)
Saints 46.5 Bills (+3)
Texans 46.0 Rams (-12)
Giants 42.0 49ers (+3)
Cowboys 50.5 Falcons (-3)
Patriots 46.5 Broncos (+7.5)

 

QB (7:08)

Jared Goff (6700|8200) It’s weird to write up Goff as a) a high price QB and b) a viable, high priced QB. Yet here we are in Week 10 with a great matchup against a Texans D that has been flailing since losing its superstars. Goff smashed the Giants last week and gets to come home to an even better matchup with all his weapons healthy and rearing to go.

Matthew Stafford (6800|8200) Stafford has thrown for 300+ yards the last three weeks and has dominated the Browns the last two times they’ve faced off. The Lions are also big home favorite which should mean lots of points to go around.

Josh McCown (6100|7400) He has been a top 15 QB the last 5 weeks which is something not a lot of QBs can say this season. The Jets are a dumpster fire in the opposite sense as they were aiming for a top 3 pick and now have a chance to be .500 ten weeks in. McCown has a few weapons and draws the hapless Buccaneer defense this week.

RB (13:23)

We obviously like the top 4 RBs this week and don’t need to get into too many reasons why but we will also dive into some cheap options that can help separate you from the field.

Bell (9800|9400) The good: matchup is golden. The Steelers are projected to score just under 28 points which should equate to at least one TD from Lev. The Colts are also one of the bottom teams against the run this year. 

The Bad: Price.  He single handedly is just shy of 20% of your budget on DraftKings. Is his value this week high enough to warrant the crazy price tag, or can you find value with lower priced backs and still have money leftover to fill out your roster? If you do roster him on DK, you’ll need 25 points at least to hit value. That is a big day for even Bell.

Todd Gurley (8700|9600) His team is a big time favorite, and I really like that starting RB at home when they are big favorites. Gurley had a strong showing last week, and I am looking for him to roll that into this weeks matchup against a team that lost to the Colts last week and are without a real starting quarterback.  

**between Bell and Gurley, this is a great example of pricing discrepancies across sites. Gurley is more pricey on FD due to TD volume where Bell is 1100 more than Gurley on FD**

Leonard Fournette (8400|8700) Sat out last week for violating a team rule.  Doug Marrone used him as an example last week that nobody is above the culture of the team, and it is up to the rookie Fournette to take this week to show his team that he is able to be the guy moving forward.  I’m hoping that Marrone give him the chance to have a bounceback week.  The Charges middling run defense could prove fortunate for Fournette.  They have let up 27 pts/game to the position on DK.

Lesean McCoy (8300|8300) Shady now has some pass catching company in Kelvin Benjamin.  As that Saints defense tries to figure out Benjamin’s usage in the offense I think there will be some chances for McCoy to run around with the ball.  As the cheapest expensive guy I think the potential is there for McCoy to have a blowup week.

Devonta Freeman (6000|6500) It’s been and ugly last 5 weeks as he’s averaging 11 carries per game but hes $6500 on FD and a home favorite, especially with Zeke out now. Historically, he’s been great at home and as a home favorite averaging 75 and over a TD.

Carlos Hyde (6300|6700) Gurley had 2 TDs last week vs the Giants but what’s more interesting is Hyde’s share of the offense. He’s averaging 60% carries and 20% targets with CJ Beathard and is still price well down on FD. He makes for an interesting play stacking with high priced WR.

Bilal Powell (4000|6000) In games without Matt Forte in his career (5 games) Powell has acted like a #1 RB. He is averaging 150 yards from scrimmage, 26 opportunities (touches + targets) and just under 4 RZ opportunities a game. Also of note is the defense he is playing. The Bucs are bad across the board and have given up some big games to opposing RBs. I think you can create some awesome GPP lineups pairing him with high priced WRs.

WR (20:57)

AJ Green (7700|7900) All in here as he escaped a suspension, gets the Titans, and has a history of bounce back games. He was very remorseful for hurting his team and looking like a fool that he might come out guns blazing and have one of ‘those’ games. I am envisioning a 160 yard/2 TD performance with one 50+ yard TD. Plus the Titans D is mediocre at best thanks to inflating their stats vs the Ravens, Colts, Browns, and Miami.

Antonio Brown (9500|9300) & JuJu Smith-Schuster (5600|6500) Vontae Davis was released so that frees Brown up and we saw what Hopkins did last week without a competent QB throwing to him. The Davis news also opens things up for JuJu with Colts shifting DBs around to make due. JuJu saw 80% snap count last game and torched the Lions for 197 yards.

 

Sammy Watkins (4800|6400) His price did go up but I think this is an even better matchup for him to break out. His 1 catch last week didn’t inflate his price to ungodly levels so we can still sneak him in. The only downside is his target share as he is ranked 120th in targets this season. I think that screams regression back to the middle and should use this week to build for the stretch run.

Golden Tate (6800|7400)  & Marvin Jones (6200|6400) As these two go, the Lions go. Tate is Mr. Reliable out of the slot while Jones gives him the room to operate. Both have put up monster numbers the last 4 weeks and they still aren’t top tier guys. Stafford has thrown for over 300+ the last three weeks and a majority of those yards have gone to these two.

Sterling Shepard (5500|5700) Going against a bad 49ers secondary (7th worst against the WR thus far) plus a big target share and air yards share in week 9 vs LA. He’s cheap if we are spending up elsewhere. Has TD/ big play potential.  The ankle seems to be fine. He main competition for targets is Evan Engram (63 targets) but Shepard has more yards and receptions per game (Engram 51.5,4.3  Shepard 55.5, 4.5). The only downside is he will be popular this week so buyer beware.

Robby Anderson (5200|6500) The Bucs have given up the second most DK points to the WR this season and third most on FD. Robby in the last 4 weeks has either been over 75 receiving yards or scored a TD and in two of those weeks he did both. His price and matchup make him someone who deserves a place in your lineup.

Kelvin Benjamin( 5100|6700) Reports are he is good to go. With Zay Jones out of the lineup Benjamin might be worth taking a flier on. The last time he faced the Saints with Carolina, he hurt his knee and was limited to 2 catches for 8 yards in a blow out loss. He is new to the system, which might have some people off of him but will be aching to get his revenge on Marcus Lattimore. This week could be a week to get him at low ownership in a GPP and benefit from his upside before everyone else gets wise.

Adam Humphries (3100|4800) Mike Evans is out, he’s a second tier guy who gets a lot of reps with Fitzmagic. We also get the Jets and Buster Skrine who is a relative sieve out of the slot. This is a play to pair with your high priced RBs to open up some room.

TE (26:32)

Garrett Celek (2500|4500 ) When we start our research with TE, we immediately start in two places. Who is playing the Giants and who is playing the Browns. George Kittel is out this week so we turn to Celek. The Giants have given up 9 TDs to TE’s this year in 8 games including one in every game they have played. This could very well be the week that trend stops but for the price, it’s worth the flyer.

Eric Ebron (3100|5300) As mentioned with Celek, we like to target the Browns as well, who are 3rd worst against the TE this season. They have given up 6 TD to the position, and have given up the most PPR points to the position so far this season. I would also look at Darren Fells in this spot as well. Ebron has come back to life but when it comes to TE, sometimes the backup scores around the goalline more.

Cameron Brate (4100|5700) Going Harvard to Harvard here as Brate has quietly had a good season. He was targeted 7 times with Fitzpatrick out of his 48 throws but should see an increase with Evans out. Expect him to be locked in on.

Jason Witten (4400|5700) This is strictly a play due to the Vegas lines. He is in the highest game on the board and does not have Zeke plus a banged up Dez. his price is too rich for me but the exposure is nice to have plus opportunity. The Falcons, however, are in the top third against the TE

D/ST (29:47)

Packers @ Bears
This is a dumpster fire of a game but both defenses are generally terrible. I think the Bears have a bit more upside but I did like the way Hundley played last week, especially if they get him going in hurry up mode.

Packers: 1 star D | Bears: 1.5 star D

Steelers @ Colts
We used the Colts D last week thanks to price and matchup but not this week. Steelers are fresh off a bye and have 2 (maybe 3) excellent WRs verse a secondary that lost its top corner. The Steelers get Brissett and have had a week to heal up any lingering injuries.

Steelers: 2.5 star D | Colts: -.5 star D

Vikings @ Redskins
The Vikings D has been cruising along, granted it seems like they always have a good matchup. This week is no different facing a turnover prone QB lacking elite WR options. The Redskins D put up a great fight last week and get to come home to Case Keenum. Norman and Breelund have gotten healthier as the weeks have gone on so I can see a dog fight emerging in this one.

Vikings: 2 star D | Redskins: 1 star D

Browns @ Lions
Although the Browns defense is relatively solid, they have to travel to Detroit to take on a hot(ish) offense. Stafford is known to toss a few picks and Abdullah fumbled twice last week (lost one) so turnovers are available, however I don’t see them taking advantage. Detroit gets to face Cleveland’s QBBC after shutting down Hundley last week.

Browns: 0 star D | Lions: 2 star D

Chargers @ Jaguars
The Jaguars D is incredible. It seems like most years a team will get hot but flame out because they cannot keep up the level up turnovers. We saw it with the Vikings last year and the Bears a few seasons ago. That being said, the Jags will keep it rolling with Phil Rivers coming into town to toss a few ducks to Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. The Chargers D isn’t terrible but it isn’t great and Bortles has become aware of his limitations, letting the ground game do the work.

Chargers: 1 star D | Jaguars: 3 star D

Bengals @ Titans
If you read my betting guide, I like this game to shoot out. Both defense are mediocre and both have competent QBs that can make plays. I am going to stay away from this one.

Bengals: .5 star D | Titans: .5 star D

Jets @ Buccaneers
We’ve been targeting the Bucs D all year and I don’t see why we wouldn’t continue. They are still moving around CBs to deal with injuries and their LB corps is not playing up to potential. Add in the fact Josh McCown is a competent fantasy QB this year, I am staying away. On the Jets side, things don’t get much better but they do get to face and old friend in Ryan Fitzpatrick. On top of that, Mike Evans is out for this one leaving Fitz with limited options.

Jets: 1.5 star D | Bucs: 0 star D

Saints @ Bills
I’m still a little skeptical of the Saints D away from home but they have been flying over the field this year. Marcus Lattimore has already shut down Kelvin Benjamin once this year. As for the Bills, their zone D has given up a lot of yards and as a result, points the last few weeks. However, Drew Brees is not as scary as he once was and I can see this one being a defensive slugfest.

Saints: 2 star D | Bills: 1.5 star D

Texans @ Rams
The NFl is a QB league. If you have one, you are good. If you don’t, you suck. The Texans had one, and now they don’t. The Rams didn’t have one, and now they do. Factor in the Rams have more talent on defense thanks to season ending injuries to the Texans all-pros, and this once intriguing game has been flipped.

Texans: .5 star D | Rams: 2.5 star D

Giants @ 49ers
It feels like this year we have at least one toilet bowl a week. This week’s edition is the Giants at the 49ers. The Giants D *should* be good but the coaches have lost the team and they aren’t playing with any effort. The 49ers are just bad on defense but have been stringing together some decent performances, albeit against poor teams. If there is any upside here, it’s with total points scored.

Giants: 1 star D | 49ers: .5 star D

Cowboys @ Falcons
This is the highest over/under on the week but I think this screams under. The Falcons offense is anemic and the Cowboys just lost Zeke for 6 games. Both teams have are generally solid on D but not spectacular. There is limited playmaking upside and both QBs are not turnover prone.

Cowboys: 1 star D | Falcons: 1 star D

Patriots @ Broncos
The late game for the FanDuel slate pits an all star defense against a less than stellar defense. Despite the talent, the Broncos gave up 51 points last week and the Patriots have had 3 games in a row now where they have stymied opposing offenses. The Pats usually have a tough time in Denver but the Broncos are also trotting out Brock Osweiler as their starter.

Patriots: 1.5 star D | Broncos: 1 star D

K (33:33)

Ryan Succop (4800) Our boy is back and in a nice matchup vs the Bengals. I like this game to score points so plenty of opportunity for our reliable friend.

Kai Forbath (4800) In the same mold, Forbath has been deadly this year. He hit 5 FGs against the Browns in London and the fans went nuts. He gets a nice matchup against the Redskins where I expect a FG fest to take place.

Greg Zuerlin (5400) He is the highest priced kicker on the board but deservedly so. Harking back to times when Justin Tucker and Matt Bryant were hitting 50+ yarders every week, Zuerlin is almost a lock to do the same.

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