Week 9 NFL DFS Playbook

**Editors note**

This is the first week of putting most of our information on the website in addition to the podcast. Our idea is to skim through everything and then direct listeners here for the full picture. We’ve found our average run time of 45 minutes to be a bit too long so we are aiming for a shorter show and supplemental info below. In future weeks, we might even post more during the week and culminating in the podcast. We are also going to start posting our favorite bets under the betting section.

This week we are in the same sort of bye heavy situation as Week 8.  Luckily for us there is no London game, meaning one extra game on the main slate.  10 games on DK main slate, 11 on FD.  

Before we jump in, let’s review some big news from the week that was.  

Trades

Jimmy Garrapolo to San Francisco

Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia

Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo

Duane Brown to Seattle

AJ McCarron to Cleveland (just kidding)

Injuries

Deshaun Watson: out for season with a torn ACL

Pierre Garcon: out for season with a neck injury

Carson Palmer: out for season with broken elbow

Andrew Luck: officially out for season with a neck injury

 

News and Notes

Ezekiel Elliott cleared to play in Week 9

 

Vegas Lines

Visitor

O/U Home (line)

Colts

45.0 Texans (-7)

Broncos

42 Eagles (-8)

Ravens

43.0

Titans (-3.5)

Buccaneers

52.0 Saints (-7)

Bengals

39.0 Jaguars (-6.0)

LA Rams

42.0 NY Giants (+4.0)
Falcons

42.5

Panthers (+2.0)

Redskins 45.0

Seahawks (-7.5)

Cardinals 39.5

49ers (+2.0)

Chiefs 54.0

Cowboys (-2)

Raiders 44

Dolphins (+3)

Position Plays

QB (9:52)

Drew Brees (7,000|8300) The Bucs have let up the MOST points to the WR on DK this season, and the 5th most to the QB.  They have surrendered 300+ passing yards in 5 of their 7 games this season, meaning that Drew Brees in the dome (he is much better at home) will be primed to throw all over the place.  I also think that Tampa’s offense will be able to keep up for most of the game so NO won’t have the chance to simply run it out in the second half.

Jacoby Brissett (5200|6500) Brissett allows you to build your roster with other studs and has bounced back nicely after a poor outing a few weeks ago. He is also the starter for the remainder of the year as Luck was shut down. Texans D gave up 40 to Seattle last week and is losing players left and right.

Russell Wilson (7300|8500) Wilson gets another home game to pad his stats with the Redskins in town. He has stabilized after a poor start to the year and they bolstered their o-line with Duane Brown. I like him to torch the Redskins secondary.

Dak Prescott (6700|8200) –  I was very excited to play Dak in a spot with no Zeke so he could just feed Dez all game and I could go out and buy a house with my winnings.  It’s not going to quite be that huge, but I’m looking for Prescott to have a strong week.  KC is the 9th worst against the QB this season and the Cowboys have put up 28+ points in the last 5 weeks with Dak throwing for 3 TDs in 3 of those games.  I am considering stacking him with Dez and/or Witten this week, hoping that Elliot struggles this week given all of the crap going on around him.

RB (14:39)

Todd Gurley (8100|9100) Gurley has not been talked about much but is coming back after a weeks rest and gets a porous Giants D. I expect him to do it all out of the backfield and running out the game in the 4th quarter.

Kareem Hunt (8600|9000) Hunt has had a few poor weeks, with his first true dud against the Broncos run D. The Cowboys are not the Broncos and they also got torched by Chris Thompson last week. This game is the highest on the board with a 54 o/u and I expect Hunt to go over 200 yards from scrimmage.

Mark Ingram (7600/|7900)- Another high scoring affair with a lack of defense makes Ingram an exciting option.  While he and Kamara both scored last week Ingram doubled Kamara’s targets (6 to 3) and more than doubled him in carries (18 to 8) showing that Ingram is clearly the number one running back in that offense.  

Christian McCaffery (6500|6100) McCaffery has seen his price and snap share drop in recent weeks but the good news is, he gets a get well game against the Falcons who love giving up targets to opposing RBs. The Falcons give up over 7 targets per game and 27% target share to RBs while McCaffery has a 24% target share and is top ten in the league with just under 7 catches a game. Without Benjamin in the fold, there is another 20% of targets to go around and the only game this season that Benjamin didn’t play 4 quarters, McCaffery caught 9 of 11 targets for 101 yards.

Lamar Miller ( 6200|7500) Without Watson, I expect the Texans to lean heavily on Miller. They lose Duane Brown but he hadn’t played all year anyway. D’Onta Foreman was a threat to steal carries earlier in the year but last week vs Seattle, Miller had an 87% snap rate and over 80% carry share. Last season against the Colts, he went over 50 fantasy points in 2 games. I think we can expect a similar output this week.

Adrian Peterson  (5600|6800) Peterson will be very very low owned because he had a great week in his debut with Arizona, and then burned people by disappearing in London before his bye.  Going up against a weak SF defense (worst against RB, second worst again QB) I’m looking for AP at least have the opportunity this week.  Roughly 20 opportunities (rushes and targets) with the upside to break one make AP a solid option in a GPP. With Palmer out, he should get the rock a lot, albeit in a low scoring game.

WR (19:28)

Julio Jones (7800|7900) Feels weird to “spend down” with Julio but its an option. This game last year he had 300 yards and 50 fantasy points. I doubt that happens again but it could very well be a breakout game for him in a game that could shoot out.

Doug Baldwin (6900|7900) Baldwin has had a quietish year but with Wilson playing well, hes due to for a breakout this week. This is more of a feel play as most people will be chasing Paul Richardson points or spending on Jimmy Graham. It’s a great spot for Baldwin in a GPP to catch a couple TDs in a high scoring affair.

Michael Thomas (7200|7600) In a high scoring affair I think that the Saints will have to continue passing at least through 3 quarters as the Bucs can keep up I think Thomas will continue being Brees’s buddy.  He’s on pace to be over 1000 yards this season but has only scored 2 TDs.  This could be one of those weeks where he finds paydirt twice.  I think if hes scoring it’s going to happen from 20+ yards out (because of Ingram/Kamara)  meaning his TD results in 9 pts.  Michael Thomas as double the targets as the next closes WR (Thomas-62 Ginn-31) with the two RBs between them.  Taking on a struggling Bucs secondary I really like Thomas this week.

Desean Jackson (5500|6200) I like Jackson as a GPP specialty.  He has breakaway speed and if he can get behind the Saint’s secondary he has the potential for a 70+ yard score. In a game where the Bucs will have to keep pace I can see this happening, so with that paired with his 7 targets/game baseline (catching about 4) he can get you close to 20 pts.

T.Y. Hilton (4900|6600) Pagano has been begging to get him the ball. 15 targets the last 2 but only 4 catches. I think this game flips now that Watson is out and Colts force feed Hilton. Just note, Hilton has only finished as a top 12 WR 2 twice this year and 4 times total without Luck. It’s risky but could very well pay dividends.

Sammy Watkins (4200|6000) Watkins has disappointed this year as he is the same price as fellow WR and rookie, Cooper Kupp. He’s going to cement himself as a #1 receiver this week going up against a flailing Giants D who just suspended the only guy that can matchup with Watkins, Janoris Jenkins. At his price, 75 yards and a TD is great value and I can see him going off for even more.

Corey Davis (4400|5500) – He is a big time GPP flyer as the Ravens haven’t given up multiple TDs to QBs since Blake Bortles. He’s cheap and he’ll be more popular than you think. If it doesn’t happen this week, keep an eye out as he has been compared to Terrell Owens.

DeDe Westbrook (3500|4500)  – Keep an eye on the reports but if he plays, it might be lightning in a bottle with Lee hurt and not many other options. This guy was a Heisman candidate in college and has explosive skills. For reference, his 2016 stats from Oklahoma were 80/1524/17 in 13 games. And to go deeper, he didn’t score in his first 3 games!

TE (26:57)

Jim Graham (5000|6200) Last week, he showed us that he is still Jimmy Graham with 2 TDs and a game winner. He is rewarded with a slight increase but not enough to scare us away, especially with some other popular plays on the board. I like him in a GPP stack with Wilson or even a cash play to get off the chalk.

Vernon Davis (4100|5400) Speaking of chalk, this is the guy this week. Earl Thomas is missing and with Reed out the field will be open for him. Sherman and Lane/Coleman/Barrett will shut down the outside leaving the middle wide open for Davis to go for 4/80/1. With Reed out, he’s finished as a top 12 TE in all but one game and sprinkled in a few top 5s.

Gerald Everett (2600|4500) The Giants have given up 7 TD to the TE this season, so why not keep attacking that dumpster fire? The last time they played one of the bottom 5 defenses against the tight end (Washington) Everett had 95 yards. 

D/ST (29:58)

I break down DSTs based on the following criteria. It is ultimately a judgement call but it is nice to put some reasoning behind each selection.

Facing a rookie/backup QB: 1 star
Facing a turnover prone QB: 1 star
Facing a poor o-line: 1 star
Intelligent and playmaking D: 1 star
Explosive KR/PR: 1 star
Facing a offensive juggernaut: -1 star
Lack of playmakers and poorly graded players: -1 star

**note that half stars can be awarded and certain ones offset (for example a TO prone QB might also make big scoring plays)


Colts @ Texans

Texans are losing everyone to the ER/IR and got torched last week in Seattle. Colts are generally worse on talent but get the privilege of facing Tom Savage who was benched before halftime in his only start this year.

Colts: 1.5 star D | Texans: 1 star D

Broncos @ Eagles

Eagles get another juicy matchup with a poor O-line and Brock Osweiler starting. Denver has been stout against the run and shut down Kareem Hunt last week but yards don’t get you points.
Broncos: 1 star D | Eagles: 3 star D

Ravens @ Titans

Ravens dominated the hapless Dolphins last week but get a tougher matchup at the Titans. Mariota is healthier and is getting weapons back. Titans are facing a banged up Flacco and a poor run game but their D is nothing to be proud of.
Ravens: 1.5 star D | Titans: 1 star D

Buccaneers @ Saints

We have been attacking the Bucs D all year as they have talent but no togetherness. Going to the dome won’t bode well either. The Saints are nasty. Their secondary makes plays and is aggressive. Winston has a weak shoulder and still makes bad decisions.
Bucs: 0 star D | Saints: 2.5 star D

Bengals @ Jaguars

The rich get richer as the Jags added Marcell Dareus before the deadline to bolster their run D. I expect their secondary to shut down Green and Co. The Bengals do get to face Bortles but he gets a healthy Fournette back.
Bengals: .5 star D | Jaguars: 3.5 star D

LA Rams @ NY Giants

The Rams come east for an early game after a bye and get Eli Manface and his collection of 3rd string WRs and backup RBs. The Giants meanwhile are suspending top players and giving up big plays all over the place.
Rams: 3 star D | Giants: .5 star D

Falcons @ Panthers

This game has the feeling of a shootout so both D’s are off the board here. We might get the classic return TD in a shootout similar to the Seahawks last week.
Falcons: 1 star D | Panthers: 1 star D

Redskins @ Seahawks

Redskins are slowly getting healthy on the D side but they have to travel to Seattle to face an imposing offense getting hot. Seahawks get an O line made up of plumbers and tuba players to feast on plus a WR corps that is mediocre at best.
Redskins: .5 star D | Seahawks: 3.0 star D

Cardinals @ 49ers

Both teams are starting backup QBs and both teams can’t move the ball. The difference is one team has an all world secondary and the other has the worst ranked group in the league.
Cardinals: 2.5 star D | 49ers: 1 star D

Chiefs @ Cowboys

Chiefs have been struggling recently but avoid facing Zeke this week. The Cowboys took advantage of Kirk Cousins last week in the rain but get noted game manager Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt.
Chiefs: 1.5 star D | Cowboys: 1 star D

Raiders @ Dolphins

Only on the FanDuel slate but two teams with aspiring hopes not living up to expectations. Dolphins let up 40 last week although only 19 of their own doing. They are stingy but lack weapons. The Raiders are just as bad and got run over by the Bills last week. I’ll be staying away here.
Raiders: 1.5 star D | Dolphins: 1 star D

 

K (for the FanDuel fans) (33:58)

Blair Walsh: he’s the cheapest of the viable kickers this week and has had a strong season. Matchup is great against the Redskins where they will score a boatload of points.

Ryan Succop: still under $5000 but he’s slowly climbed the ranks as one of the best kickers under 50 yds in the NFL. end of the day I want makes instead of long FGs. Give me two from under 40 instead of missing one from over 50.

 

Good luck, get out there, and win some money!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s